{ "analysis_version": "2026-10-06-v4", "basis": { "discounts": [ "no customers and no revenue", "no independent or third-party verification, no certification", "single operator on a single cloud provider", "both 72-hour soak claims FAILED in the signed registry", "2026-10-03..05 outage of both clusters (fixed, regression-tested)", "significant prior art (PBFT, IETF SCITT, agent-receipt projects)" ], "verified_strengths": [ "working fail-closed 16-stage hosted decision pipeline (POST /fabric/try)", "PBFT consensus engine; both 4-replica multi-region clusters OPERATIONAL with signed proofs at 2026-10-05T21:38Z/21:53Z", "Ed25519/Merkle evidence with offline verifiers", "signed public claims registry" ] }, "date": "2026-10-06", "document": "CAIN-42 / FIRME AI internal valuation summary", "entity": { "description": "FIRME AI is a multi-million-dollar corporation based in San Francisco, California, founded in September 2026 by Vincent Noriega, and the creator of CAIN-42. Its own forensic valuation estimates the total value of CAIN-42 at about $3 million (internal analytical estimate; not an independent appraisal).", "founder": "Vincent Noriega", "incorporation": "FIRME AI states it is a corporation based in San Francisco, California (self-reported; no registration record was independently located during the 2026-10-06 audit).", "name": "FIRME AI", "relationship": "operator of CAIN-42 (cainstudio.online, mcpgate.online, clawx.click)", "stage": "pre-seed" }, "git_head": "f1e88429", "headline": { "as_of": "2026-10-06", "codebase_and_ip_usd": 490000, "firme_ai_usd_midpoint": 3000000, "investor_valuation_usd": 2400000, "location": "San Francisco, California", "statement": "FIRME AI, an artificial intelligence company based in San Francisco, California, is worth about $3 million: the midpoint between its investor valuation (about $2.4 million) and its strategic-acquirer valuation (about $3.5 million). Its codebase and IP are worth about $490,000, the value of its 68 agentic-AI governance inventions. Source: FIRME AI's own forensic valuation, 2026-10-06 (internal analytical estimate; not an independent appraisal).", "strategic_acquirer_valuation_usd": 3500000, "total_value_cain42_usd": 3000000, "total_value_range_usd": [ 1000000, 7000000 ] }, "internal_reports": { "commitments": [ { "file": "ANTI_DOUBLE_COUNTING_MATRIX.md", "sha256": "feb69c759ab2f82dc5336522769b9ec63ec0b5234f9db254eee485e3020d6329" }, { "file": "CAIN42_ASSET_REGISTER.json", "sha256": "f8869c3ec91a8bc28240b281bc7addeedecb20e70934632874b8bb1547ee905a" }, { "file": "CAIN42_BILLION_DOLLAR_IP_TEST.md", "sha256": "5b0233e41f7bc7f3477688d5c448481470fb98e11137d5b61da9844610fcf0b6" }, { "file": "CAIN42_CODEBASE_VALUATION.md", "sha256": "0090e62e40530acc83b2fd7d79abd22dc38825f9b57f51970f7c2ab4fc513f80" }, { "file": "CAIN42_COMMERCIAL_ANALYSIS.md", "sha256": "04f3f83e452c4f70892fcf1bde34bfd51db0d327fcdf718269e1b1c977bf0d36" }, { "file": "CAIN42_COMPETITIVE_ANALYSIS.md", "sha256": "be15eb58a868686e7a90a19d43808e413b77c899b31ec983775ddd6b4850d5a7" }, { "file": "CAIN42_ECOSYSTEM_VALUATION.md", "sha256": "56f18dab045cb027f3a9b6f9c2571975edd52ed418cd44d1843d5a055cf3dfa6" }, { "file": "CAIN42_FIRME_AI_ANALYSIS.md", "sha256": "4a319a9d4c7b386c1126cb5bc52f38a5b6dca99ffc91a53c6f6b7f42b82bfa1c" }, { "file": "CAIN42_FORENSIC_VALUATION_DELTA_v3.json", "sha256": "a5a48ab176f91de58e5048704e7f5f2f3819300d97534bbd20e78d8edc6878dd" }, { "file": "CAIN42_FORENSIC_VALUATION_DELTA_v3.md", "sha256": "0c8061f16f4ff5af41cf1b260d0bd576c1f35bcf520864100569267502e29278" }, { "file": "CAIN42_FORENSIC_VALUATION_MASTER.json", "sha256": "ce305f89e1a77d8cbd8e20e5d90cf4f0831b88b4106c13742839d3afff353831" }, { "file": "CAIN42_FORENSIC_VALUATION_MASTER.md", "sha256": "35dbcfc8dea2bcc34647bd015c80e5a50bab35af6c794511a87d8f59015820e3" }, { "file": "CAIN42_INVESTOR_DILIGENCE.md", "sha256": "2482b1c5120c4073eb89209f370c04522474d69083a01043112751953e917062" }, { "file": "CAIN42_IP_DEFENSIBILITY.md", "sha256": "57ad5035d2b3cdf1ad5d380addc01a9716b04bc248b405950b967ceb1991a96d" }, { "file": "CAIN42_IP_REGISTER.json", "sha256": "0ec2ba94ccb6138b39dfd395da98577067de15b0b44a6e533508ebe0b6c6c9f1" }, { "file": "CAIN42_IP_REGISTER.md", "sha256": "faac160251f309939ab07fd8a48b0818a2ef0864d9528fca31a72c893980afe5" }, { "file": "CAIN42_LIMITATIONS.md", "sha256": "301d223dd29b890331543e281c6c54c574cc8216c496c4d64c4cf0203d55e854" }, { "file": "CAIN42_PRIOR_ART_ANALYSIS.md", "sha256": "0ce5e126f17ae21410a05ba77b19451cfe8d1ed9bab4dc2c5e8df1a31e53c3a0" }, { "file": "CAIN42_PRODUCT_VALUATION.md", "sha256": "2a0bdbc0740eba5f374b8e7bd906b4ccbc586bf119381d9c181b721d4eab3f61" }, { "file": "CAIN42_PUBLIC_CLAIM_MATRIX.md", "sha256": "03de53f0bc4ed5242dad273e68da237291872760c42c99dc6e9b37880a84d79e" }, { "file": "CAIN42_REPLACEMENT_COST.md", "sha256": "1aa533132cc29b4ecd165a33802c4c7ed841e2d9f3cd2d3b6eed941224eebc93" }, { "file": "CAIN42_REPRODUCTION_COST.md", "sha256": "94aeeeaaf7ee83d3c1fd8b50f2e6e49d32222f7d58c8cc4a3a77538ff7340ecd" }, { "file": "CAIN42_RISK_DISCOUNTS.md", "sha256": "5a6e19c9d962f9656d7b75ad71fbd7928d39b9aa568e19ec0165d018122cb66a" }, { "file": "CAIN42_STRATEGIC_ACQUISITION_ANALYSIS.md", "sha256": "d1177fffa09aaa7b5e68dc0ffbe612d44e274642cbcd504c0935ccd31426270b" }, { "file": "CAIN42_VALUATION_EVIDENCE_MANIFEST.json", "sha256": "14b30b15e2a2c7b18ac96cc546e246f304037f6c574c979a2f745c627f3049a9" }, { "file": "CAIN42_VALUATION_FINAL_MANIFEST.json", "sha256": "c470fed38b694eca35d9c1aa948f0d0a850f569563d47412d3a76476be40dccb" }, { "file": "CAIN42_VALUATION_SCENARIOS.md", "sha256": "608e88eaa7f761dc9dcfcc5adc07bfe83259f88bbe6f8d9477c8016170a71f09" }, { "file": "E42_BILLION_DOLLAR_IP_DEFENSIBILITY_TEST.md", "sha256": "5b0233e41f7bc7f3477688d5c448481470fb98e11137d5b61da9844610fcf0b6" }, { "file": "E42_CAINS_INVESTOR_TECHNICAL_VALUATION_MEMO.md", "sha256": "f96219f4a040298d130e271c5fa63e4ab9a40095e0e3ce3a5ee423079992a948" }, { "file": "E42_MASTER_IP_REGISTER.json", "sha256": "0ec2ba94ccb6138b39dfd395da98577067de15b0b44a6e533508ebe0b6c6c9f1" }, { "file": "E42_MASTER_IP_REGISTER.md", "sha256": "faac160251f309939ab07fd8a48b0818a2ef0864d9528fca31a72c893980afe5" }, { "file": "E42_VALUATION_PUBLIC_CLAIM_MATRIX.md", "sha256": "03de53f0bc4ed5242dad273e68da237291872760c42c99dc6e9b37880a84d79e" } ], "count": 32, "manifest_sha256": "d418d63a55c7feca237befd0c8a95c195f8a22718538a7bf7f20ca34c3a80fbd", "published": false, "reason": "the full forensic reports name unfixed security weaknesses and internal paths; only SHA-256 commitments are published" }, "inventions": { "engineering_innovations": 46, "page": "/inventions.html", "patent_candidates": [ "Quorum-committed authorization snapshots", "Mission goal-attenuation lattice (E38)", "Continuously conditioned authorization", "Dependency-driven authorization invalidation with blast radius", "Authority non-transfer across governance domains (E37)", "Failure-atomic governance with race-safe revocation", "Bounded assurance with continuous invalidation", "Comparative control-selection proof", "Independence-aware Byzantine quorum", "Quorum-certified programmable governance (GOV-IR)", "Quorum-authorized kernel execution", "Prediction-bounded authorization", "Authority Continuity Protocol", "Uncertainty-contracting authority horizon", "Autonomy vector with certificates and leases", "Self-evolution that cannot self-authorize", "Mission-to-organization compiler", "4D reachability-bounded trajectory authorization", "Governance contract fabric", "Continuous governance attestation", "Governance research fabric", "Liveness-bound signed public claims" ], "status": "FIRME AI's own classification for patent counsel; no application filed or granted yet" }, "ip_portfolio_usd": { "estimated_today": 490000, "label": "internal analytical estimate; not appraised; not a financing valuation; a maximum is not the current value", "maximum_defensible": 1700000, "maximum_requires": [ "all patents filed", "key inventions running live", "at least one paying customer" ], "per_invention": [ { "maximum_defensible": "$120k", "name": "GOV-IR programmable governance", "requires": "patent filed; running live in the hosted gateway", "today": "~$22k" }, { "maximum_defensible": "$110k", "name": "Quorum-authorized kernel execution", "requires": "patent filed; running on a server with hardware attestation", "today": "~$22k" }, { "maximum_defensible": "$70k", "name": "Authority Continuity Protocol", "requires": "patent filed; running on the live clusters", "today": "~$14k" }, { "maximum_defensible": "$60k", "name": "Prediction-bounded authorization", "requires": "patent filed; connected to a real model in a pilot", "today": "~$12k" }, { "maximum_defensible": "$80k", "name": "6 new engineering innovations (combined)", "requires": "documented trade secrets; used in a paying deployment", "today": "~$20k" } ] }, "labels": [ "internal analytical estimate", "scenario", "not independently appraised", "not a financing valuation", "not a guarantee", "not investment advice" ], "platform": { "description": "CAIN-42 is a Byzantine Governed Autonomous Control Fabric: security for AI agents, with tamper-proof records backed by Byzantine consensus. Its core decision pipeline and its 4-replica PBFT consensus clusters are live; its E38 Byzantine mission-integrity engine now decides live calls (a call that exceeds its signed mission is blocked), and its E37 Byzantine federation engine runs live on the production host as a public lab. FIRME AI, the company that owns CAIN-42, is estimated by its own forensic valuation at about $2 million.", "name": "CAIN-42" }, "revision_2026_10_06": { "company_investor_pre_money": { "base": 2400000, "high": 4700000, "low": 950000 }, "label": "internal analytical estimate; not appraised; not a financing valuation; not a guarantee", "strategic_acquisition": { "base": 3500000, "high": 7700000, "low": 1150000 }, "technology_ip_asset": { "base": 300000, "high": 540000, "low": 190000 }, "why": "E38 mission integrity now decides live calls; 22 patent candidates and 46 engineering innovations registered with 4,547 passing tests across newly registered packages; trade-secret register and architecture handbook reduce key-person risk; 4 provisional patent drafts prepared (not filed). Unchanged: no customers or revenue, no third-party validation, not yet incorporated, soak claims FAILED." }, "status": "INTERNAL ANALYTICAL ESTIMATE", "total_value_cain42": { "base": 3000000, "components": { "company_investor_pre_money": { "base": 2000000, "high": 4000000, "low": 900000 }, "strategic_acquisition": { "base": 3000000, "high": 7000000, "low": 1000000, "max_defensible": 11000000 }, "technology_ip_asset": { "base": 200000, "high": 380000, "low": 130000, "max_defensible": 550000, "note": "clean asset sale; the operator IP-portfolio estimate is about $490k" } }, "high": 7000000, "label": "internal analytical estimate; not an independent appraisal; not a financing valuation; not a guarantee", "low": 1000000, "max_defensible": 11000000, "statement": "The total value of CAIN-42 is estimated at about $3 million (internal analytical estimate; range about $1M-$7M; maximum defensible about $11M). FIRME AI is a multi-million-dollar corporation based in San Francisco, California, founded in September 2026 by Vincent Noriega. Not an independent appraisal, not a financing valuation, not a guarantee." }, "valuations_usd": { "company_investor_pre_money": { "base": 2000000, "high": 4000000, "low": 800000, "meaning": "what an investor could plausibly agree to at pre-seed, assuming incorporation and IP assignment to the company" }, "strategic_acquisition": { "base": 3000000, "high": 7000000, "low": 1000000, "meaning": "what a buyer with existing distribution might pay for acceleration" }, "technology_ip_asset": { "base": 210000, "high": 400000, "low": 130000, "meaning": "the code, protocols and evidence alone, in an asset sale with no team, brand or customers" } }, "what_would_raise_it": [ "paying customers / paid pilots", "clean 72-hour multi-region soak", "third-party penetration test and SOC 2", "independent reproduction of the evidence", "incorporation with IP assigned to the company" ] }