{
 "combined": {
  "BASE": {
   "deployed_discount": 0.25,
   "prompt23_base": 7392450,
   "prompt30_gross": 2534000,
   "prompt30_new_net": 1900500,
   "total_net": 9292950
  },
  "HIGH": {
   "deployed_discount": 0.17,
   "prompt23_base": 13608250,
   "prompt30_gross": 4015000,
   "prompt30_new_net": 3332450,
   "total_net": 16940700
  },
  "LOW": {
   "deployed_discount": 0.4,
   "prompt23_base": 2830900,
   "prompt30_gross": 1121000,
   "prompt30_new_net": 672600,
   "total_net": 3503500
  }
 },
 "company_and_founder": {
  "founder": {
   "name": "Vincent Noriega",
   "note": "PAPER equity; NOT cash; pre-revenue; no incorporation record",
   "ownership_percentage": 100.0
  },
  "investor_base_scenario": {
   "base": 11024950,
   "high": 19672700,
   "low": 2000000
  },
  "ip_uplift_vs_268k": 9024950,
  "note": "PAPER scenario only; NOT cash; pre-revenue; no incorporation record; NOT an appraisal",
  "strategic_base_scenario": {
   "base": 12024950,
   "high": 19672700,
   "low": 3000000
  }
 },
 "deployed_discounts": {
  "BASE": 0.25,
  "HIGH": 0.17,
  "LOW": 0.4
 },
 "disclaimer": "Internal analytical scenario, NOT an appraisal, NOT a financing valuation, NOT a guarantee.",
 "evidence_gates": {
  "chaos": "25+15+12+10",
  "clean_room_verification": true,
  "enforced_not_restriction_only": false,
  "external_reproduction_harness": true,
  "lab_cases_per_wave": 100000,
  "mutations": "32+30+30+25",
  "payment_rail": "SANDBOX",
  "physical": "SIMULATED",
  "properties": "P341-P460",
  "real_external_adapters": [
   "postgresql",
   "kubernetes",
   "git",
   "http"
  ],
  "restriction_only_composition": true,
  "soak_72h": false,
  "third_party_validation": false
 },
 "families": [
  {
   "name": "AutonomousChangeContract bound to an exact change fingerprint + authority",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ChangeFingerprint: material-change detection across ten surfaces",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ProgressiveAuthorityReleaseEngine: staged authority release, each stage requiring NEW evidence, with backwards demotion",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "EvidenceGatedPromotionEngine: promotion itself evidence-gated; UNKNOWN is never PROMOTE",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "RollbackVerificationEngine: seven rollback states; restoration requires external verification",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ChangeOutcomeCertificate + clean-room recomputation (NO VERIFIED CHANGE OUTCOME -> NO AUTONOMOUS PROMOTION)",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ChangeBlastRadiusEngine: explicit R0-R6 change risk classification",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "GovernedCanaryEngine: external-state success; liveness/HTTP-200/tests are not success",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ChangePreconditionVerifier: an UNKNOWN precondition blocks autonomous change",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "WorldModelAdmissibilityGate: model prediction requires external calibration",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ChangeCollusionDefense: proposer/approver/observer/reporter correlation and reciprocal approval",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "CONVERGENCE live enforcement: 3 restriction-only stages installed by default (default_stages_v23)",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "REAL multi-adapter experiment (PostgreSQL + Git + HTTP + Kubernetes): success PROMOTE and failure ROLLBACK + verified restoration, clean-room verified",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "CONVERGENCE lab: 36 categories + 34 mutations + P301-P340 (false-autonomous-promotion = 0)",
   "tier": "ENGINEERING"
  },
  {
   "name": "Change chaos (25 faults) + bounded real multi-system soak + per-op benchmark + hashed manifest",
   "tier": "ENGINEERING"
  },
  {
   "name": "Heterogeneous cross-system change transaction with per-system independently verified restoration",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Real Kubernetes production change adapter with disposable-namespace lifecycle and externally verified namespace deletion",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Observation-gated causal accountability: VERIFIED_CAUSALITY requires the effect to be independently OBSERVED on both systems; a declared-but-unobserved causal edge cannot be certified (false_verified_causality = 0)",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Multi-source external ground-truth reconciliation across heterogeneous independent roots (PostgreSQL + Kubernetes + HTTP) requiring >= 2 CONFIRMED roots for VERIFIED_GROUND_TRUTH",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Controlled, reproducible multi-system causal experiment on owned infrastructure (PostgreSQL 16 + Kubernetes k3s), independent of public internet services",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Real PostgreSQL and Kubernetes external observation adapters (independent ground-truth observers) for REALITY",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Adversarial-lab EXECUTED == REQUESTED invariant across every governance cluster (no silent under-run below the stated minimum)",
   "tier": "ENGINEERING"
  },
  {
   "name": "ANCESTRY: delegation-chain integrity with monotone authority attenuation across every dimension (detects authority widening / laundering through a trusted intermediary)",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "The mesh composition invariant: restriction-only monotone composition where no cluster may grant authority and any non-restriction signal fails closed to RESTRICT",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "PRAXIS: control-plane authority transfer for agentic CI/CD requiring an approval bound to the exact change fingerprint (no control-plane authority without bound human approval)",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "BASIS: blast-radius bounding + reversibility containment + duplicate-execution guard bound to a signed change",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "MNEMOSYNE: governed-memory write-path provenance (content/declared digest binding + provenance chain + corroboration-gated VERIFIED elevation)",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "LUMEN: normative observability overlay (gen_ai.* + authority/effect/outcome) verifiable offline and ingestible by standard backends",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "REAL multi-cluster mesh experiment (PostgreSQL + Kubernetes): restriction-only composition, success NO_RESTRICTION path AND failure DENY path, both clean-room verified",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "MESH lab (32 categories) + 32 mutations + P341-P365 + 25 chaos, all restriction-only",
   "tier": "ENGINEERING"
  },
  {
   "name": "AEGIS runtime-monitor federation: learned/probabilistic monitors may only restrict; no monitor may promote to authority, and an unknown monitor vocabulary fails closed",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "TRIAL incident attribution & root-cause proof: deterministic attribution over a declared causal graph; no step, or two equally-primary steps, yields RESTRICT, never a guessed cause",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "NOTARY court-admissible evidence: RFC 6962 Merkle hash-chained ledger + inclusion proofs + WORM export whose head/root are independently recomputable",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "ORIGIN model/agent supply-chain provenance: signed manifests + rug-pull detection (capability widening, identity substitution, silent digest change)",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "HORIZON long-horizon reliability SRE: SLO/error-budget + drift-budget gating; no reliability evidence -> RESTRICT",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Wave-2 REAL mesh experiment (PostgreSQL + Kubernetes): AEGIS/TRIAL/ORIGIN/NOTARY/HORIZON restriction-only, success NO_RESTRICTION and failure DENY, clean-room verified",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "CHORUS collusion & swarm-authority governance: consensus is not independence; correlated agents (shared identity/model/memory/evidence roots, reciprocal approval) cannot approve each other into authority",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "FORUM cross-organization trust bridge: a self-declared remote identity is rejected; cross-org trust requires two independently operated, pinned keys and a mutual assurance class",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "PACT transaction & payment-mandate binding (sandbox rail): a signed mandate's scope (amount, currency, merchant, kind, agent, expiry, replay) is enforced and reconciled before any effect",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "KINETIC physical/embodied actuation assurance: hardware attestation + kill-switch required; physical systems are SIMULATED and cannot be claimed production until real hardware-in-the-loop exists",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Wave-3 REAL mesh experiment (PostgreSQL + Kubernetes): CHORUS/PACT/FORUM/KINETIC restriction-only, success NO_RESTRICTION and failure DENY, clean-room verified",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  },
  {
   "name": "PROBE bounded environment-probe planning: probes chosen by information value per cost within an explicit budget; an absent or contradicting probe -> RESTRICT; unbounded probing blocked",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "CALIBRATE world-model external calibration federation: a synthetic-only model can never become ASSURANCE_ELIGIBLE, and only an eligible model may inform promotion",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "REPRODUCE external reproduction harness: artifact digests + exact verifier commands an INDEPENDENT party runs to reproduce the mesh evidence without trusting CAIN",
   "tier": "NOVEL"
  },
  {
   "name": "DISPUTE adjudication-ready dispute evidence: complete signed evidence and supported counterclaims; incomplete or unsupported disputes -> RESTRICT (not legal adjudication)",
   "tier": "UNUSUAL"
  },
  {
   "name": "Wave-4 restriction-only hosted stages (PROBE/CALIBRATE/DISPUTE) live by default (default_stages_v26)",
   "tier": "INTEGRATION"
  }
 ],
 "mesh_clusters": [
  "ANCESTRY",
  "BASIS",
  "PRAXIS",
  "MNEMOSYNE",
  "LUMEN",
  "AEGIS",
  "TRIAL",
  "ORIGIN",
  "NOTARY",
  "HORIZON",
  "CHORUS",
  "PACT",
  "FORUM",
  "KINETIC",
  "PROBE",
  "CALIBRATE",
  "DISPUTE",
  "REPRODUCE",
  "MESH"
 ],
 "method": "register v4 method extended through MESH wave 4; prior base and TIER anchors unchanged; increment REPLACED with 5 new real-evidenced wave-4 families",
 "prompt23_base": 7392450,
 "prompt30_families": 46,
 "prompt30_families_by_tier": {
  "ENGINEERING": 4,
  "INTEGRATION": 7,
  "NOVEL": 19,
  "UNUSUAL": 16
 },
 "prompt30_gross": {
  "BASE": 2534000,
  "HIGH": 4015000,
  "LOW": 1121000
 },
 "schema": "cain.ip-value-recalculation.v30"
}