{
 "default_policy": {
  "budget_overrides": [],
  "budget_units": 5000,
  "budget_window_ms": 86400000,
  "drift_deny_impact_bp": 5000,
  "max_expected_bp": {
   "agent": 6000,
   "authority": 6000,
   "availability": 7000,
   "data": 7000,
   "infrastructure": 6000,
   "network": 6000,
   "privacy": 6000,
   "security": 6000
  },
  "mode": "enforce",
  "on_material_divergence": "revoke",
  "schema": "cain.contract.forecast_policy.v1",
  "unquantified_impact_bp": 8000
 },
 "governance": "a model change changes model_set_digest, which is bound into every in-flight E8 binding (stale -> refused)",
 "model_set_digest": "164e530f7c2edf05a8e87dae10b611c291bbbb968591fc22f6bad6962ee5ad38",
 "models": {
  "evidence": {
   "kinds": [
    "evidence_register"
   ],
   "known_failure_modes": [
    "payload truthfulness is not modelled"
   ],
   "params_digest": "87c439b998718148eab78efa0d38aaa5206d394760ca281e978eed4dcf0f87aa",
   "training_provenance": "rules",
   "validity_range": "SCITT statements",
   "version": "1"
  },
  "exec_effect": {
   "kinds": [
    "exec"
   ],
   "known_failure_modes": [
    "argv0 aliases/wrappers (env X, busybox X) reclassified as interpreter",
    "write side effects of 'read' tools with unlisted flags",
    "effects outside cwd are not observed",
    "find -fprint/-fprintf/-fls write files but are classed 'read' (found by the 2026-10-04 benchmark; caught at runtime by divergence revocation)"
   ],
   "params_digest": "f6f440b8677a129bf4fd71198125611bdd9061c8a3a19b5b34735db0c6aa4a75",
   "training_provenance": "hand-written rule table (no training data)",
   "validity_range": "argv-vector commands in the OpenShell sandbox",
   "version": "1"
  },
  "history_frequency": {
   "kinds": [
    "exec",
    "memory_write",
    "memory_read",
    "evidence_register"
   ],
   "known_failure_modes": [
    "cold start: n=0 -> epistemic UNQUANTIFIED",
    "can be skewed by an agent choosing what to run (it can only raise)"
   ],
   "params_digest": "5b286b3ebc6839499635789b600d2a28720283b84c0190266f4202e15d88c532",
   "training_provenance": "this tenant's own prediction corpus (observed outcomes)",
   "validity_range": "per tenant, per kind/effect class",
   "version": "1"
  },
  "memory_propagation": {
   "kinds": [
    "memory_write",
    "memory_read"
   ],
   "known_failure_modes": [
    "classifier recall is 0.617: ~38% of held-out injections missed",
    "readers are RIG-authorized readers, not actual readers"
   ],
   "params_digest": "18a9708a7b8061f47df023f4523586e33eb47c67a21d8f20ca5ca266a7303a15",
   "training_provenance": "rules + MemVault's held-out-measured injection classifier (recall 0.617, precision 1.0 on n=116, 2026-10-04)",
   "validity_range": "MemVault namespaces under RIG scopes",
   "version": "1"
  }
 }
}